Oil prices will depend on the success of mass vaccinations
As the number of air travel rises, exchange rates for importers of raw materials will double
The demand for energy resources in the world markets continues to grow. March Brent futures on the London ICE exchange increased in price by 1.5% and exceeded $ 52.5 per barrel. Meanwhile, on January 4, at a meeting of the OPEC + ministerial committee, new operating conditions for the "international black gold exchange" were never formulated.The meeting of the committee devoted to the volumes of production and supply of raw materials to the world market, produced by export countries, was postponed several times. First, the summit was scheduled for the first days of December 2020, then at the end of the year, and upon reaching this deadline it was postponed to the beginning of 2021.
However, the results of the meeting did not bring any big scandals or big sensations. Eight countries out of 23 OPEC + countries took part in the work. They were intended only to monitor the fulfillment of the terms of the transaction, as well as, on the basis of a thorough analysis of the market situation, to recommend the members of the alliance certain actions on the trading floors.
“For ordinary Russians, changes in oil prices during the holidays will not be a headache,” says Vadim Iosub, senior analyst at Alpari Eurasia. - The cost of a barrel on world markets continues to be at $ 52, which is quite satisfactory for the Russian budget, calculated on the basis of $ 40 per barrel.
The market situation has not changed much since the previous meeting, except that the price of a barrel has grown slightly.
Mass vaccination against coronavirus has just begun and has not yet brought significant changes. New infections are still at their highs. This means that there is no need to wait for the rapid winding down of quarantine regimes in various countries.
On the contrary, we can expect the introduction of quarantine where it has not yet been, the analyst continues. There will be no more travel by car and air travel in the near future, which means that the demand for oil products and oil will not increase. Nonetheless, markets are set to defeat the pandemic in the medium term. In the near future, a moderate increase in "black gold" to $ 54 per barrel of Brent is possible. Until the end of March of the current year, most likely, the price will remain within the comfortable range of $ 49- $ 59 for Russia.
- The previous, December, meeting of the organization of oil-producing states was one of the longest in the history of OPEC and lasted with breaks for four days,
On the contrary, we can expect the introduction of quarantine where it has not yet been, the analyst continues. There will be no more travel by car and air travel in the near future, which means that the demand for oil products and oil will not increase. Nonetheless, markets are set to defeat the pandemic in the medium term. In the near future, a moderate increase in "black gold" to $ 54 per barrel of Brent is possible. Until the end of March of the current year, most likely, the price will remain within the comfortable range of $ 49- $ 59 for Russia.
- The previous, December, meeting of the organization of oil-producing states was one of the longest in the history of OPEC and lasted with breaks for four days,
- says the investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suvorov. - Following the results of the December negotiations, the participants came to an agreement to increase production by 500 thousand barrels per day for three months starting from January. Representatives of the OPEC member countries will meet monthly to monitor the situation and decide on possible adjustments to the levels of production reductions or increases. At the same time, an adjustment is possible in the amount of 500 thousand barrels, both upward and downward. Thus, the total limitation of production of the OPEC + member countries from the beginning of January is 7.2 million "barrels" from the base level. The distribution of quotas between countries remains in the same proportion as before, and violators of the agreement are given time until March to compensate for the lag in the reduction of volumes.
World production of "black gold" is at 10-year lows. The increase in production is beneficial for both producers who expect to increase demand for energy resources and consumers who intend to increase their own production of finished products. The result will depend on vaccination: the success of which promises to become an avalanche. If this process helps to increase consumption in the producing states themselves, exchange rates for importers of raw materials will soar twice to the current level.
World production of "black gold" is at 10-year lows. The increase in production is beneficial for both producers who expect to increase demand for energy resources and consumers who intend to increase their own production of finished products. The result will depend on vaccination: the success of which promises to become an avalanche. If this process helps to increase consumption in the producing states themselves, exchange rates for importers of raw materials will soar twice to the current level.